Sam Fazeli from Bloomberg Intelligence said in an email: "It will take Pfizer more than a year to deplete government reserves."
The move to recover inventory has reduced speculation about the company's financial situation.
Fazeli said Pfizer's Friday earnings cut was "unprecedented" for a company of such scale, despite the unpredictability of COVID.
Truist Securities analyst Robyn Karnauskas said that in the long term, sales of Paxlovid may improve as the U.S. no longer holds the inventory. Morningstar analyst Damien Conover said Paxlovid courses could retail for as much as $700.
Restoring Investor Confidence
The company also lowered its 2023 COVID vaccine sales forecast by $2 billion on Monday, to $11.5 billion. Just last month, management had projected that 24% of the U.S. population would receive COVID boosters, higher than the previous booster uptake level. On Monday, the institution said it now expects only 17% of Americans to get vaccinated.
As for its competitors, COVID vaccine maker Moderna reiterated its 2023 COVID vaccine sales expectations between $6 billion and $8 billion. The company stated that it would have a better understanding of the total size of the U.S. market after seeing trends throughout October.
Bourla took over Pfizer in 2019 and led the company through explosive growth during the pandemic. With the new COVID vaccines and pills, the company's total sales reached $100 billion in 2022, double what it was when he started.
However, the speed of decline in demand for these products has consistently caught management off guard. After the sales of its anti-COVID-19 drugs fell about $700 million below analysts' expectations last quarter, the company lowered the upper end of its annual sales forecast by $1 billion, but prior to Friday's cut, its adjusted earnings per share outlook remained between $3.25 and $3.45. The company now expects earnings per share of $1.45 to $1.65.
During Monday's conference call, the CEO made assurances.
"Many uncertainties surrounding the COVID business have been resolved or are about to be resolved," Bourla said. "The final factors will become clear, and everyone can reasonably and safely predict the business for 2024 and the years to come."
Bloomberg
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